Modelling land-use change impacts on carbon and water fluxes of forests and grasslands under climate change

Interaction of land-use change and climate change scenarios can lead to complex changes of carbon and water cycle dynamics of grassland-forest landscapes. This study uses the process-based model LandscapeDNDC to simulate carbon and water cycle dynamics of grasslands, broadleaved, coniferous and mixed forests for a landscape of southwest Germany. The model was evaluated with satellite gross primary production and evapotranspiration products. We utilized a novel hydraulic module that considers drought stress impacts on senescence and thus indicates differences in the vulnerability of different species and stand structures. In addition to simulations of climate change responses in the region, we also run a variety of land-use change scenarios, which represented a possible transformation of mono-specific forests to more diverse ecosystems with multiple tree species. We also tested how deforestation and afforestation would affect the carbon and water balance within the landscape. The results suggest that land-use change will have significant impacts on carbon sequestration and groundwater supply but that forest management may have considerable possibilities to increase the resilience to increasingly frequent and intense drought events. ... mehrThe findings also highlight the importance of accounting for the interactions between land-use change, climate change, and ecosystem dynamics when assessing the impacts of environmental change on terrestrial landscapes.