Bioenergy in Europe is unlikely to make a timely contribution to climate change targets

Increasing bioenergy production is a significant component of European efforts to mitigate climate
change, but has contested potential for reducing emissions. We use an integrated land system
model to explore the effects of large-scale bioenergy production within the European Union on
carbon balances. We find that increased bioenergy crop production is likely to cause substantial
deforestation and a commensurate loss of associated carbon stocks largely due to displacement of
food production from other areas. Deforestation would occur either within the EU if European
forests were not protected, or in other parts of the world arising from indirect land use change if
European forests were protected. The net carbon benefit of bioenergy production is largely
negative, or uncertain, even under the most optimistic levels of fossil fuel replacement, and will not
offset initial carbon losses over the coming 50 yr. The growth of intensive agriculture required to
satisfy the demand for bioenergy and food will have negative impacts on crucial ecosystem services.
Overall, we identify substantial disadvantages to increasing bioenergy production relative to freeing
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land for natural succession. At best, large-scale bioenergy production is likely to be irrelevant to
time-sensitive climate targets.