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Human judgement forecasting of COVID-19 in the UK

Bosse, Nikos I. ; Abbott, Sam; Bracher, Johannes 1,2; Leeuwen, Edwin van; Cori, Anne; Funk, Sebastian
1 Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
2 Scientific Computing Center (SCC), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Abstract:

Background
In the past, two studies found ensembles of human judgement forecasts of COVID-19 to show predictive performance comparable to ensembles of computational models, at least when predicting case incidences. We present a follow-up to a study conducted in Germany and Poland and investigate a novel joint approach to combine human judgement and epidemiological modelling.

Methods
From May 24th to August 16th 2021, we elicited weekly one to four week ahead forecasts of cases and deaths from COVID-19 in the UK from a crowd of human forecasters. A median ensemble of all forecasts was submitted to the European Forecast Hub. Participants could use two distinct interfaces: in one, forecasters submitted a predictive distribution directly, in the other forecasters instead submitted a forecast of the effective reproduction number Rt . This was then used to forecast cases and deaths using simulation methods from the EpiNow2 R package. Forecasts were scored using the weighted interval score on the original forecasts, as well as after applying the natural logarithm to both forecasts and observations.

Results
The ensemble of human forecasters overall performed comparably to the official European Forecast Hub ensemble on both cases and deaths, although results were sensitive to changes in details of the evaluation. ... mehr


Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000170450
Veröffentlicht am 03.05.2024
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.19380.2
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT KIT-Bibliothek (BIB)
Scientific Computing Center (SCC)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsdatum 21.03.2024
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2398-502X
KITopen-ID: 1000170450
Erschienen in Wellcome Open Research
Verlag F1000Research
Band 8
Seiten Art.-Nr.: 416
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 19.09.2023
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
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Globale Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung Ziel 3 – Gesundheit und Wohlergehen
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