Future disposal surge: A new quantification approach for predicting waste from external thermal insulation composite systems in Germany

This study quantifies external thermal insulation composite systems (ETICS), in partic-
ular expanded polystyrene (EPS) as the insulation layer, installed in Germany between
1969 and 2022. Employing a bottom-up approach, it conducts mass quantification,
localization at the NUTS-3 level, determination of installation years, and prediction
of future waste for both ETICS in general and EPS ETICS specifically. The methodol-
ogy involves categorizing the German residential and non-residential building stock
into further subcategories and construction age classes to determine their respec-
tive insulation parameters such as insulation rate and thickness providing insights into
the distribution of ETICS quantities across building categories and types, construction
years, and administrative districts. Additionally, waste stream predictions are carried
out through surveys on ETICS lifetimes and single-house-level sampling of probabilis-
tic lifetimes. The findings project a quadrupling of annual EPS waste generation from
ETICS by 2050 compared to today, with 79% attributed to residential and 21% to non-
residential buildings, predominantly in urban areas. ... mehrThe results of the ETICS waste
prediction indicate that currently established disposal routes are unfit to handle future
waste generation, underlining the importance of alternative recycling paths for ETICS
and improved waste disposal policies.