Psychological Dynamics of Performance Crises in Professional Soccer: Developing and Validating Crisis Indices for Team Performance Assessment

Performance crises in professional soccer can have profound psychological and organizational impacts, influencing team cohesion, confidence, decision-making, and stakeholder satisfaction. This study aims to develop and validate three quantitative indices – Relative Position (RP), Linear Rate of Change (LRC), and Exponential Rate of Change (ERC) – to assess team performance relative to expectations and detect the onset of crises. Using data from the 2023–24 Bundesliga season, the indices were applied to analyze patterns of underperformance and their connection to managerial changes, providing insights into the psychological dynamics underlying team crises. The RP index quantifies a team’s position relative to preseason expectations, while the LRC index captures cumulative performance trends over the season. The ERC index emphasizes recent performance momentum, identifying acute downturns that may trigger psychological and structural crises. Results show that the indices are effective in diagnosing both chronic and acute performance issues, with sharp declines in ERC often coinciding with coaching dismissals, reflecting the psychological tipping points of team management decisions. ... mehrIllustrative case studies of FC Augsburg and VfL Wolfsburg demonstrated the indices’ practical utility, highlighting contrasting patterns of early versus late interventions. Across the league, teams experiencing managerial changes exhibited significant negative trends in all three indices, underscoring their reliability in identifying crises. By integrating psychological momentum, expectation management, and performance analysis, the proposed indices provide a systematic approach to monitoring team performance, understanding the psychological precursors of crises, and enabling timely interventions to mitigate performance downturns.