Feasibility of meeting future battery demand via domestic cell production in Europe

Batteries are critical to mitigate global warming, with battery electric vehicles as the backbone of low-carbon transport and the main driver of advances and demand for battery technology. However, the future demand and production of batteries remain uncertain, while the ambition to strengthen national capabilities and self-sufficiency is gaining momentum. In this study, leveraging probabilistic modelling, we assessed Europe's capability to meet its future demand for high-energy batteries via domestic cell production. We found that demand in Europe is likely to exceed 1.0 TWh yr-1 by 2030 and thereby outpace domestic production, with production required to grow at highly ambitious growth rates of 31-68% yr-1. European production is very likely to cover at least 50-60% of the domestic demand by 2030, while 90% self-sufficiency seems feasible but far from certain. Thus, domestic production shortfalls are more likely than not. To support Europe's battery prospects, stakeholders must accelerate the materialization of production capacities and reckon with demand growth post-2030, with reliable industrial policies supporting Europe's competitiveness.