Integrating establishments in an agent-based modeling framework for urban parcel shipments on the first and last mile

In recent decades, there has been a substantial increase in courier, express, and parcel (CEP) shipments. This development is particularly problematic in urban areas, where an increase in first- and last-mile shipments further strains existing infrastructure. To evaluate and identify alternative shipment concepts, freight demand models are used. However, existing models that analyze CEP shipments focus primarily on parcel deliveries to private recipients, although establishments of all kinds, such as retail, account for the major proportion of all parcels on the first mile and a considerable proportion on the last mile. Hence, this study aims to develop an agent-based model that explicitly simulates CEP shipments on the first and last mile induced by establishments in urban environments. A first model prototype is developed and integrated into the existing parcel demand model logiTopp. All integrated modules are based on open data sources and expert interviews with CEP service providers. The framework simulates on a parcel level over a simulation period of one week and is made available as an open-source project. The results highlight the importance of considering CEP shipments to and from establishments; otherwise, transport-related effects are massively underestimated. ... mehrMoreover, the study reveals the impact of specifics in establishments’ CEP shipments, such as carrier contracts, on key tour metrics.