Six decades of global crop yield increase and cropland expansion from 1960 to 2020

Population growth, changing consumption preferences, technological advances, globalised trade and
environmental influences have all shaped global agriculture. An increasing demand for agricultural
commodities has led to greater production through land area expansion and/or intensification
(represented here as increasing yields). Yet, the interlinkages between global agricultural expansion
and intensification, remain unclear. Here we (1) analyse the spatiotemporal patterns of global
cropland changes and crop yield changes at a spatial resolution of 1 km during six decades
(1960–2020) and (2) explore the relationship between yield increases and cropland expansion across
agroecological country zones by applying a temporal cross-correlation and a Granger causality test.
We find that high-income countries have followed a trajectory of yield increase and land contraction
on croplands, in accordance with the concept of land sparing and mediated by policy. Conversely,
low-income countries have increased yields less but substantially expanded cropland area over time.
However, emerging countries in tropical regions (e.g. Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand, Colombia, and
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Malaysia), had both the highest crop yield increases and cropland expansion rates. By analysing the
relationship of annual crop yield and cropland area changes, we see potential rebound effects of yield
increases in tropical lowlands of low- to middle-income countries. Our results suggest that high-profit
crops such as soybean, oil palm and sugar cane have triggered further agricultural expansion into
natural ecosystems. Increasing tree crops is the underlying cause of more than half of the global
deforestation for cropland expansion. Overall, the relationship between yield increases and expansion
on cropland differs by region and is likely affected to varying degrees by political intervention, global
trade, technology transfer and climate change.