Analysis of age, period and cohort effects on passenger kilometers traveled – An example from Germany

Monitoring travel behavior is essential for policy and planning. Specifically, understanding transport user groups is crucial for designing an effective transport system and determining travel distances, especially since this information is essential for climate protection measures. This study examines the determinants of passenger kilometers traveled (PKT) using Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort (HAPC) models, based on the Mobility in Germany survey from 2002, 2008, and 2017. The results reveal a non-linear relationship between age and PKT, with PKT increasing to a peak and then declining thereafter. Gender and economic disparities persist, with men and higher-income individuals traveling greater distances. Urban-rural differences have a significant impact, with urban residents relying more heavily on bicycles and public transportation. Disaggregated analyses by transport mode indicate generational shifts towards bicycle and public transport among cohorts, while car use remains relatively stable across generations. The findings highlight the significance of socio-demographic and contextual factors in shaping mobility, indicating that transport policy should consider generational preferences and structural inequalities to foster equitable and sustainable travel patterns.