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Early Warning Signs of Bipolar Relapse: Investigating Critical Slowing Down in Smartphone Data

Ludwig, V. M. ; Bittendorf, C. A. 1; Reinhard, Iris; Neubauer, Andreas B.; Menningen, Eva; Mühlbauer, Esther; Severus, Wolfram E.; Bauer, Michael; Ebner-Priemer, Ulrich W. 1
1 Institut für Sport und Sportwissenschaft (IfSS), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Abstract:

Background
Early warning signals (EWS) based on dynamical systems theory, such as increased autocorrelation (AR) and variance, may indicate impending mood episodes in bipolar disorder (BD). This study examines whether smartphone-based digital phenotyping can detect these signals before depressive and (hypo)manic episodes.

Methods
We analyzed smartphone sensor and self-report data from 29 BD patients (16 female, mean age of 43,97 ± 11.9 years) over one year, totaling 10,587 patient days and including 30 depressive and 20 (hypo)manic episodes in 22 patients. 26 bi-weekly expert interviews per patient established daily disease status. AR, variance and moving averages were calculated from passively assessed activity, communication, and smartphone-usage, as well as self-reported sleep parameters. Multilevel logit models assessed whether these measures could predict pre-episode weeks of depression or mania compared to euthymic days. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves evaluated clinical utility.

Results
Several parameters significantly predicted pre-episode weeks, but no single robust predictor emerged. Manic episodes were best predicted by altered AR and variance in activity-related measures, while sleep parameters predicted both manic and depressive transitions. ... mehr


Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000185074
Veröffentlicht am 23.09.2025
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1016/j.jad.2025.119972
Scopus
Zitationen: 1
Web of Science
Zitationen: 1
Dimensions
Zitationen: 1
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Sport und Sportwissenschaft (IfSS)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2025
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0165-0327, 1573-2517
KITopen-ID: 1000185074
Erschienen in Journal of affective disorders
Verlag Elsevier
Band 391
Seiten Article no: 119972
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 28.07.2025
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
Dimensions
OpenAlex
Scopus
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