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The strategy tradeoff between risk and reward in soccer: Expected ball gain and expected possession value in Bundesliga

Forcher, Leander ORCID iD icon 1; Forcher, Leon 2; Altmann, Stefan 1; Woll, Alexander ORCID iD icon 1
1 Institut für Sport und Sportwissenschaft (IfSS), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
2 Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Abstract (englisch):

Tactical behavior of soccer players always comes with both risk and reward depending on the outcome of the actions. This is especially true during the often chaotic playing phase of transition following a ball gain/loss, where player actions can highly impact a team's success. Therefore, this study analyses the risks and rewards of transitions, focusing on the objectives of both the defensive and offensive teams. Official tracking and event data of 612 matches played during two Bundesliga seasons (2022/23 and 2023/24) were analyzed. To assess transitions, two separate machine learning models were developed based on over 30 expert-driven features: (i) an expected possession value (EPV) model that predicts the probability of the ball-gaining team to score a goal in the following seconds of the possession, (ii) an expected ball gain (xBG) model that predicts the probability of the ball losing team to regain the ball in the following seconds of the possession. Overall, 220,226 match situations during the 58,868 transitions were analyzed. The resulting EPV (AUC: 0.88) and xBG (AUC: 0.64) models showed satisfactory prediction performance. ... mehr


Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000187744
Veröffentlicht am 01.12.2025
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1177/17479541251389831
Scopus
Zitationen: 1
Web of Science
Zitationen: 1
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Sport und Sportwissenschaft (IfSS)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2025
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1747-9541, 2048-397X
KITopen-ID: 1000187744
Erschienen in International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching
Verlag SAGE Publications
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 28.11.2025
Schlagwörter Association football, decision-making, performance analysis, tactics
Nachgewiesen in OpenAlex
Web of Science
Dimensions
Scopus
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