From raw material to fossilfree mobility: Europe's potential for a renewable fuel market

The transformation of the entire transport sector and its transition towards petroleum-free energy presents a challenge that cannot be met through the electrification of powertrains alone. It is therefore essential to exploit the CO$_2$ savings potential of all energy sources. The focus here – alongside hydrogen, for example – is on liquid fuels that can be integrated into the existing supply infrastructure without requiring technical modifications. Renewable fuels – so-called Carbon Neutral Fuels (CNF) – is a collective term encompassing all fuels with a lower carbon footprint than fossil fuels. This study examines the substitution potential of advanced renewable fuels derived from biological feedstocks as replacements for fossil fuels across all sectors of the EU.
Based on current scientific literature and various scenarios, this study analyses the availability of advanced raw materials, their conversion to renewable fuels and the development of fuel demand for road transport in the European Union for the target years 2030, 2035 and 2040, adopting a free-market-oriented approach. The shipping and aviation sectors, as well as other sectors with vehicles and machinery that are difficult to electrify, will ensure long-term demand for CNF. ... mehrHowever, the introduction of a new vCNF (Carbon Neutral Fuels Vehicle) class will be crucial for the market ramp-up and the long-term availability of these fuels.
The long-term objective is to establish CNF mobility as a complementary pathway to electrification for road transport, without fossil CO$_2$ emissions, and to evaluate its feasibility both quantitatively and qualitatively – not only to meet the needs of a vCNF fleet, but also to assess the potential to replace the entire fuel market, with renewable fuels, including volumes required by the existing fleet.

Key findings on raw material availability
The evaluation of several studies shows that, even without imports, sufficient advanced raw materials are available within the EU to produce CNF in relevant quantities. The requirements of other sectors, such as industry, energy, aviation and shipping, have already been factored into the analysis. This study focuses on advanced raw materials, as listed in Annex IX, Parts A and B of the current Renewable Energy Directive (RED), and considers both a mid and a high realisation scenario, which differ in the assumed mobilisation rate of the respective feedstocks. To fully assess the potential of advanced biofuels, additional feedstocks – such as agroforestry intermediate and cover crops, as well as renewable non-food crops from marginal land – are also included. For this purpose, certain restrictions in Annex IX Part B are partially relaxed, and further potential feedstocks are incorporated.
The diversity is considerably broader than is often reflected in public discourse, which tends to focus narrowly on HVO and the specific raw materials used for its production, such as used cooking oil (UCO). However, UCO accounts for only 1% of the total spectrum of available raw materials. Figure 1 shows the breakdown of bioenergy potential by different advanced raw materials for the year 2030 in the mid-scenario, i.e. the potential already accounts for only the quantities available for energy use, after deducting materials allocated for other purposes, such as straw for stables. This study calculates both the renewable diesel and gasoline that can be produced from these quantities.
In 2030 and 2035, the raw material base in the EU will already be sufficient to cover more than 50% of total road transport fuel demand with renewable alternatives, after accounting for the requirements of the other sectors mentioned above and for material usage. For example, in 2030, 38 - 55% of the total EU road transport fuel demand can be met, increasing to 44 - 67% in 2035, as shown in Table 1 and Figure 2. If 100% substitution of the entire market, including shipping and aviation, is the political goal, the supply gap for 2030 - 2035 could be readily supplemented through raw material imports to support the CNF market start-up phase and advance the transition to petroleum-free energy sources. The global raw material potential is up to 43 times larger than the EU’s maximum import requirements, thus guaranteeing that global supply has the potential to meet EU demand.
In the High-scenario, CNF will be able to meet 107% of the projected total EU road transport fuel demand using raw materials available within Europe from 2040 onwards.
This assumes that sustainability potentials are systematically realised, that competition for use is managed and that technological economies of scale are achieved. The findings underline that CNF does not require structural dependency on imports in the long term but rather allows for a high degree of energy and climate policy resilience.

Conclusion
The study clearly finds that renewable fuels (CNF) represent a viable, scalable pillar for road transport without fossil CO$_2$ in the EU. In the short term, moderate imports of raw materials or products will still be necessary to achieve 100% substitution of all fossil fuels in the EU. In the medium term, however – no later than 2040 – it will be possible to fully meet fuel demands with renewable raw materials available within Europe. This will require reliable political framework conditions, investment security and a coordinated ramp-up of CNF value chains.