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Timing of a just-in-time intervention to reduce alcohol consumption: A simulation approach to optimize decision rules

Haucke, Matthias ; Reichert, Dominic; Reinhard, Iris; Groß, Rika; Sreepada, Abhijit; Ghadami, Ali; Ganz, Marvin; Heim, Christine; Tost, Heike; Ebner-Priemer, Ulrich W. 1; Liu, Shuyan; Reichert, Markus
1 Institut für Sport und Sportwissenschaft (IfSS), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Abstract (englisch):

The effectiveness of a just-in-time adaptive intervention relies on accurate algorithms (i.e., decision rules), that determine when and how interventions should be administered. Yet, so far, there is a lack of empirical investigations that evaluate the performance of decision rules. Simulation can be a useful tool to evaluate and refine a range of decision rules prior to implementing just-in-time adaptive interventions in real-world settings. In this study, we evaluate the performance of various decision rules using both an existing data set and a simulated data set that includes measures of craving and alcohol consumption. The tested decision rules consist of adaptive algorithms, like previous-day mean craving and online logistic regression, as well as fixed thresholds (e.g., a craving score larger than 1 on a 7-point Likert scale). For each decision rule, we generated confusion matrices and compared them across performance metrics, including accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity, as well as the number of interventions sent prior to drinking. To assess the robustness of our findings, we simulated a range of data sets with varying underlying distributions and tested the decision rule performance across these conditions. ... mehr


Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Sport und Sportwissenschaft (IfSS)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2026
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1939-1463, 1082-989X
KITopen-ID: 1000192252
Erschienen in Psychological Methods
Verlag American Psychological Association
Seiten 1
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 16.02.2026
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