Simulations of Present and Future Air Quality with ICON-ART

We assess future air quality in Europe, expected from the transition to a net-zero greenhouse gas society, using the comprehensive chemistry transport model ICON-ART. Simulations are conducted based on both present-day emissions and a Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) anthropogenic emission scenario for 2050. For current conditions, we provide the first evaluation of the ICON-ART model with MOZART-T1 chemistry against EMEP measurements across Europe, focusing on ground-level ozone (O$_3$) and nitrogen oxides (NO$_x$). The model closely matches observed mean levels and the temporal and spatial variability of O$_3$. However, it slightly underestimates daytime NO$_x$ levels, as well as the morning peak in summer, though overall agreement with ground-based observations remains strong. For a one-month summer period under current conditions, we found that the maximum daily 8 h mean ozone threshold of 100 µg/m$^3$ was exceeded on at least five days at 45% of monitoring stations. We show that by 2050, under the MFR scenario, this threshold is exceeded only at a single station in Ispra (Po Valley, Italy).