Water Quality Reliability Analysis of Water Distribution Networks By Considering Parameter Uncertainties in Operational Period Under Critical Condition

The prioritization of safe drinking water within Water Distribution Networks (WDNs) is a critical concern for municipal governments. This paper emphasizes the need for considering parameter uncertainties in water quality analysis of WDNs under critical condition. This study introduces a novel framework for assessing the diurnal and annual Water Quality Reliability (WQR) of WDNs by accounting for uncertainties in both hydraulic and water quality parameters and integrating these uncertainties into the simulation under critical condition. For this purpose, the proposed framework simultaneously simulates deterministic and non-deterministic parameters over the operating period. The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method is utilized to produce the uncertainty of parameters and the Nodal Chlorine Reliability Index (NCRI) is used to evaluate the reliability. The study is conducted on Two-Loop sample network and the real-life Kaleibar network. The results show consistent improvements in service levels of the first case study over ten years, with the peak performance in the evening and the minimum in early morning. Conversely, the service levels of Kaleibar WDN declines throughout the planning horizon, with peaks in the early morning and minimum at noon. ... mehrStochastic analysis for both networks reveals more significant fluctuations, especially in the Kaleibar WDN, the stochastic analysis shows that performance was preserved from the base to the middle year, with a decline beginning around this year, whereas the deterministic results indicate a stable decline throughout the operational period. So, the stochastic method illustrates reliable results compared to the deterministic method that is valuable in long-term planning.