Strategic Decision Making and Validation of Waste-to-Energy Technologies for Developing Countries: An MCDA Framework via AHP and Direct Weight Analysis

Municipal solid waste management in developing countries creates critical issues for public health, environmental sustainability, and energy security. However, technology selection frameworks often rely on expert judgment without validation with local contextual data, which is a critical gap that will put public investments at risk. In order to identify the most appropriate waste-to-energy technology and diagnostically evaluate expert-derived priorities, this study presents a dual-method multi-criteria decision analysis framework that integrates the Analytical Hierarchy Process with Direct Weight Analysis. Using Sri Lanka, where over 60% of waste is organic, as a case study, interviews were conducted with 18 national stakeholders to assess anaerobic digestion, combustion, pyrolysis and gasification against four primary criteria and 12 sub-criteria. The framework revealed what has been termed the “expert judgment trap”: while the analytical hierarchy process prioritized environmental (58%) and social (25%) criteria, direct weighting analysis revealed the hidden dominance of land use and economic factors in determining project feasibility in resource-constrained settings. ... mehrDespite this disparity, both approaches recognised that anaerobic digestion was the best technology (scoring 0.88), and scenario analysis supported its structural superiority in all policy priorities. The unpredictability of secondary technology rankings emphasizes the neediness of context-specific feasibility assessments when considering complementary solutions. This proven, replicable approach provides policymakers with a robust decision-support tool that advances sustainable development goals 7, 11, 12 and 13, while protecting against inappropriate investments in developing countries.