Scenario-Based Modeling and Assessment of the Future European Hydrogen Backbone

The evolving hydrogen transmission network is a key component of Europe’s energy
transition. This study assesses whether the planned European hydrogen transmission grid
can accommodate projected regional supply and demand in 2030, 2040, and 2050. Scenario
data from the TransHyDE System Analysis project are combined with GIS-based network
models in order to perform European-scale hydraulic simulations. The modeled topology
integrates the European Hydrogen Backbone and the German hydrogen core network. The
assessment considers operational thresholds for pressure and flow velocity. Results indicate
that the fragmented 2030 network can satisfy demand at the time of maximum aggregated
regional (NUTS 3-level) consumption. By 2040, the grid develops into a largely meshed
system. However, regional supply–demand imbalances and high hydrogen imports from
North Africa cause elevated pressures in southern Spain and Italy. The affected pipeline
segments have maximum operating pressures of 50–80 bar, whereas simulated pressures
reach approximately 130 bar in 2040 and up to 200 bar in 2050. The southern European
pipelines and interconnections between the Iberian Peninsula and Central Europe therefore
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appear insufficiently dimensioned under the investigated scenario.