Simulating Nature Futures Pathways for Europe using a Nexus Modelling Framework

Deliverable 1.3 of the EU-funded BIONEXT project reports on the application of the nexus modelling framework. The framework comprises three complementary models: (i) JUNIPER, a systems dynamic model developed specifically for BIONEXT; (ii) CRAFTY-Europe, an agent-based model enhanced for this project; and (iii) IAP2/dIAP, a regional integrated assessment model. Together, these models capture interlinkages among the seven nexus elements—biodiversity, climate change, food, water, energy, transport and health—enabling improved quantification of cross-sectoral impacts, synergies and trade-offs. The framework also accommodates a wide range of direct drivers (e.g. climate change, land use change) and indirect drivers (e.g. socio-cultural, demographic, technological, economic and governance factors).

The modelling framework was applied to three co-created just transition pathways—NAC (Nature as Culture), NFN (Nature for Nature) and NFS (Nature for Society)—at the European scale, with national illustrations for six countries. These pathways were co-designed with stakeholders through three workshops to reflect plural values and governance choices, then translated into quantitative parameter trends and modelled to 2050 under a common climate forcing. ... mehrThe resulting multi-model outputs show how different action portfolios propagate through the nexus—revealing where synergies dominate, where trade-offs must be managed, and how policy sequencing can improve outcomes.