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Development and application of a logistic model to estimate the past and future hail potential in Germany

Mohr, S. ORCID iD icon 1; Kunz, M. ORCID iD icon 1; Keuler, K.
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Abstract:

This study investigates to what extent the frequency of hail events in the summer months has changed during the past decades and which changes are expected to occur in the future. To improve the diagnostics of hail events by considering various factors relevant for the formation of hail, a logistic hail model has been developed by means of a multivariate analysis method. This statistical model is based on a combination of appropriate meteorological parameters (convective parameter, moisture content, etc.) and synoptic weather types. The output of the model is a new index that estimates the potential of the atmosphere for hailstorm development, referred to as potential hail index. Validations with independent data sets confirm the reliability of the model results. For Germany, the logistic hail model applied to reanalysis data over the past decades shows a markedly north-to-south gradient with most of the potential hail days occurring in the south. Applied to an ensemble of seven regional climate model simulations, it is found that the potential for hail events will increase in the future (2021–2050) compared to the past (1971–2000), but only statistically significant in the northwest and south of Germany.


Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/110101155
Veröffentlicht am 21.11.2022
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1002/2014JD022959
Scopus
Zitationen: 35
Web of Science
Zitationen: 35
Dimensions
Zitationen: 39
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2015
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0148-0227, 2156-2202, 2169-9313, 2169-9356
KITopen-ID: 110101155
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01) Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Erschienen in Journal of geophysical research / Solid earth
Verlag John Wiley and Sons
Band 120
Heft 9
Seiten 3939-3956
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
Scopus
Dimensions
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