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A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: Land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties

Frieler, K.; Levermann, A.; Elliott, J.; Heinke, J.; Arneth, A.; Bierkens, M.F.P.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D.B.; Deryng, D.; Döll, P.; Falloon, P.; Fekete, B.; Folberth, C.; Friend, A.D.; Gellhorn, C.; Gosling, S.N.; Haddeland, I.; Khabarov, N.; Lomas, M.; Masaki, Y.; ... mehr

Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/110101544
Veröffentlicht am 05.11.2018
DOI: 10.5194/esd-6-447-2015
Zitationen: 22
Web of Science
Zitationen: 21
Zitationen: 24
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2015
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2190-4979, 2190-4987
KITopen-ID: 110101544
HGF-Programm 12.02.02 (POF III, LK 01) Vegetation climate- and land use system
Erschienen in Earth System Dynamics
Verlag Copernicus Publications
Band 6
Heft 2
Seiten 447-460
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 16.07.2015
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
Web of Science
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