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Transport demand evolution in Europe - factors of change, scenarios and challenges

Bernardino, J.; Aggelakakis, A.; Reichenbach, M. 1; Vieira, J.; Boile, M.; Schippl, J. 1; Christidis, P.; Papanikolaou, A.; Condeco, A.; Garcia, H.; Krail, M.
1 Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung und Systemanalyse (ITAS), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


In the transport sector, where change comes with inertia and investments are made with a long term perspective, decision makers need to consider how the future may look like in the very long term. The work presented in this paper is a scenario analysis focusing on the evolution of transport demand towards 2050, aiming to identify related challenges for European industrial and policy players. It follows up on the work of other recent attempts to study the future of transport from a European perspective, integrating findings from these studies, updating new trends and applying a specific scenario analysis methodology relying also on expert consultation. The diversity of the scenarios created unfolds aspects of the future transport system with rather different outcomes on issues like the volume of transport, travel motives, the prevalent spatial scales of transport and logistics, people’s preferences towards different transport attributes, the relevancy of the State versus the private initiative in transport production, the level of competition, or the relative importance of environment and resource scarcity in setting an agenda for innovation and regulations. ... mehr

Volltext §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/110104025
DOI: 10.1007/s40309-015-0072-y
Zitationen: 14
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung und Systemanalyse (ITAS)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2015
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2195-4194
KITopen-ID: 110104025
HGF-Programm 48.01.01 (POF III, LK 01) Innovation Processes+impacts of Technol.
Erschienen in European Journal of Futures Research
Verlag SpringerOpen
Band 3
Heft 13
Seiten 1-13
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
Web of Science
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