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Probabilistic Forecasting Based on Hydrometeorological Ensembles

Hemri, Stephan

Abstract (englisch): Over the last two decades the paradigm in hydrometeorological forecasting has shifted from deterministic to probabilistic. Weather prediction and hydrological models are run increasingly as ensemble forecasting systems, which provide a finite sample of forecast scenarios. Ensemble forecasts are often biased and lack calibration. Different statistical methods to correct for bias and miscalibration are developed and applied to real-world problems within the framework of this thesis.

Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Stochastik (STOCH)
Publikationstyp Hochschulschrift
Jahr 2016
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator DOI(KIT): 10.5445/IR/1000054702
URN: urn:nbn:de:swb:90-547020
KITopen ID: 1000054702
Verlag Karlsruhe
Abschlussart Dissertation
Fakultät Fakultät für Mathematik (MATH)
Institut Institut für Stochastik (STOCH)
Prüfungsdaten 18.05.2016
Referent/Betreuer Prof. T. Gneiting
Schlagworte probabilistic forecasting, statistical post processing, hydrometeorological ensembles
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