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Probabilistic Forecasting Based on Hydrometeorological Ensembles

Hemri, Stephan

Abstract (englisch):

Over the last two decades the paradigm in hydrometeorological forecasting has shifted from deterministic to probabilistic. Weather prediction and hydrological models are run increasingly as ensemble forecasting systems, which provide a finite sample of forecast scenarios. Ensemble forecasts are often biased and lack calibration. Different statistical methods to correct for bias and miscalibration are developed and applied to real-world problems within the framework of this thesis.

Volltext §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000054702
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Stochastik (STOCH)
Publikationstyp Hochschulschrift
Publikationsjahr 2016
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator urn:nbn:de:swb:90-547020
KITopen-ID: 1000054702
Verlag Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
Art der Arbeit Dissertation
Fakultät Fakultät für Mathematik (MATH)
Institut Institut für Stochastik (STOCH)
Prüfungsdaten 18.05.2016
Schlagwörter probabilistic forecasting, statistical post processing, hydrometeorological ensembles
Referent/Betreuer Gneiting, T.
KIT – Die Forschungsuniversität in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
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