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Predictability of convective precipitation for West Africa: verification of convection-permitting and global ensemble simulations

Maurer, Vera; Kalthoff, Norbert; Gantner, Leonhard

Abstract (englisch):
Within the framework of this investigation, convection-permitting (CP) ensemble forecasts were generated for West Africa by combining different initial and lateral boundary conditions (IBCs) with perturbations that address the uncertainty of land-surface atmosphere interactions (land-surface perturbations). For a multi-analysis setup, IBCs were taken from model analyses of different global models; for a single-model setup, they were selected from the ensemble system of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The different ensemble setups were assessed using common probabilistic scores as well as by spatial forecast verification of precipitation generated mainly by convective systems during the West African monsoon season. Additionally, it was investigated whether the CP ensemble forecasts were superior to the ECMWF ensemble forecasts.Probabilistic scores were higher for the single-model ensemble than for the multi-analysis setup, but the latter displayed a larger dispersion and more extreme scenarios. From this, it is concluded that the different model analyses can differ strongly from each other. The land-su ... mehr

Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2017
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator DOI: 10.1127/metz/2016/0728
ISSN: 0941-2948, 1610-1227
KITopen ID: 1000059465
HGF-Programm 12.01.01; LK 01
Erschienen in Meteorologische Zeitschrift
Band 26
Seiten 93-110
Bemerkung zur Veröffentlichung 2016 online veröffentlicht
Gefördert durch den KIT-Publikationsfonds
Schlagworte Sahel; COSMO model; ECMWF EPS; soil moisture; land-surface perturbations; soil-moisture ensemble
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