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Future Arctic ozone recovery : The importance of chemistry and dynamics

Bednarz, Ewa M.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Abraham, N.Luke; Braesicke, Peter; Dessens, Olivier; Pyle, John A.

Abstract:
Future trends in Arctic springtime total column ozone, and its chemical and dynamical drivers, are assessed
using a seven-member ensemble from the Met Office Unified Model with United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols (UM-UKCA) simulating the period 1960–2100. The Arctic mean March total column ozone increases throughout the 21st century at a rate of 11.5 DU decade􀀀1, and is projected to return to the 1980 level in the late 2030s. However, the integrations show that even past 2060 springtime Arctic ozone can episodically drop by 50–100DU below the corresponding long-term ensemble mean for that period, reaching values characteristic of the near-present-day average level. Consistent with the global decline in inorganic chlorine (Cly / over the century, the estimated mean halogeninduced chemical ozone loss in the Arctic lower atmosphere in spring decreases by around a factor of 2 between the periods 2001–2020 and 2061–2080. However, in the presence
of a cold and strong polar vortex, elevated halogen-induced ozone losses well above the corresponding long-term mean continue to occur in the simulations into the second part of the century ... mehr


Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Spurenstoffe und Fernerkundung (IMK-ASF)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2016
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator DOI: 10.5194/acp-16-12159-2016
ISSN: 1680-7316, 1680-7324
URN: urn:nbn:de:swb:90-604903
KITopen ID: 1000060490
HGF-Programm 12.04.03; LK 01
Erschienen in Atmospheric chemistry and physics
Band 16
Heft 18
Seiten 12159-12176
Lizenz CC BY 3.0 DE: Creative Commons Namensnennung 3.0 Deutschland
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