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URN: urn:nbn:de:swb:90-730703

Future scenarios for earthquake and flood risk in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Murnane, R. J.; Daniell, J. E.; Schäfer, A. M.; Ward, P. J.; Winsemius, H. C.; Simpson, A.; Tijssen, A.; Toro, J.

Abstract:
We report on a regional flood and earthquake risk assessment for 33 countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Flood and earthquake risk were defined in terms of affected population and affected gross domestic product (GDP). Earthquake risk was also quantified in terms of fatalities and capital loss. Estimates of future population and GDP affected by earthquakes vary significantly among five shared socioeconomic pathways that are used to represent population and GDP in 2030 and 2080. There is a linear relationship between the future relative change in a nation's exposure (population or GDP) and its future relative change in annual average population or GDP affected by earthquakes. The evolution of flood hazard was quantified using a flood model with boundary conditions derived from five different general circulation models and two representative concentration pathways, and changes in population and GDP were quantified using two shared socioeconomic pathways. There is a nonlinear relationship between the future relative change in a nation's exposure (population or GDP) and its future relative change in its annual average populatio ... mehr


Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM)
Geophysikalisches Institut (GPI)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2017
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2328-4277
URN: urn:nbn:de:swb:90-730703
KITopen ID: 1000073070
Erschienen in Earth's future
Band 5
Heft 7
Seiten 693-714
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