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Forecasting wind gusts in winter storms using a calibrated convection-permitting ensemble

Pantillon, Florian 1; Lerch, Sebastian ORCID iD icon 2; Knippertz, Peter ORCID iD icon 1; Corsmeier, Ulrich 1
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
2 Institut für Stochastik (STOCH), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


Windstorms associated with low‐pressure systems from the North Atlantic are the most important natural hazards for central Europe. Although their predictability has generally improved over the last decades, forecasting wind gusts is still challenging, due to the multiple scales involved. One of the first ensemble prediction systems at convection‐permitting resolution, COSMO‐DE‐EPS, offers a novel 2.8‐km dataset over Germany for the 2011–2016 period. The high resolution allows representation of mesoscale features that are barely captured by global models, while the long period allows both investigation of rare storms and application of statistical post‐processing. Ensemble model output statistics based on a truncated logistic distribution substantially improve forecasts of wind gusts in the whole dataset. However, some winter storms exhibit uncharacteristic forecast errors that cannot be reduced by post‐processing. During the passage of the most severe storm, gusts related to a cold jet are predicted relatively well at the time of maximum intensity, whereas those related to a warm jet are poorly predicted at an early phase. Wind gusts are overestimated during two cases of frontal convection, which suggests that even higher resolution is needed to resolve fully the downward mixing of momentum and the stabilization resulting from convective dynamics. ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000085018
Veröffentlicht am 06.11.2018
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3380
Zitationen: 20
Web of Science
Zitationen: 16
Zitationen: 24
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2018
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0035-9009
KITopen-ID: 1000085018
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01) Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Erschienen in Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Verlag John Wiley and Sons
Band 144
Seiten 1864-1881
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 31.07.2018
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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