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Flood-related extreme precipitation in southwestern Germany: development of a two-dimensional stochastic precipitation model

Ehmele, Florian 1; Kunz, Michael ORCID iD icon 1,2
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
2 Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


Various fields of application, such as risk assessments of the insurance industry or the design of flood protection systems, require reliable precipitation statistics in high spatial resolution, including estimates for events with high return periods. Observations from point stations, however, lack of spatial representativeness, especially over complex terrain. Current numerical weather models are not capable of running simulations over thousands of years. This paper presents a new method for the stochastic simulation of widespread precipitation based on a linear theory describing orographic precipitation and additional functions that consider synoptically driven rainfall and embedded convection in a simplified way. The model is initialized by various statistical distribution functions describing prevailing atmospheric conditions such as wind vector, moisture content, or stability, estimated from radiosonde observations for a limited sample of observed heavy rainfall events. The model is applied for the stochastic simulation of heavy rainfall over the complex terrain of southwestern Germany. It is shown that the model provides reliable precipitation fields despite its simplicity. ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000091675
Veröffentlicht am 26.02.2019
DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-1083-2019
Zitationen: 12
Web of Science
Zitationen: 12
Zitationen: 12
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2019
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1607-7938
KITopen-ID: 1000091675
HGF-Programm 12.01.01 (POF III, LK 01) Clouds in a pertubed atmosphere
Erschienen in Hydrology and earth system sciences
Verlag Copernicus Publications
Band 23
Heft 2
Seiten 1083–1102
Bemerkung zur Veröffentlichung Gefördert durch den KIT-Publikationsfonds
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 25.02.2019
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
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