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The Impact of Electric Cars on Oil Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Key Markets

Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J.

Abstract (englisch):
This thesis explores the extent to which electric cars might reduce oil demand and greenhouse gas emissions in key markets: China, France, Germany, India, Japan and the United States. To meet this objective, a dynamic model capable of simulating the market evolution of nine powertrain technologies between 2000 and 2030 is developed.
The model consists of an econometric sub-model, soft-linked with a system dynamics sub-model. The purpose of the time-series econometric sub-model is to project country-specific total car stock. To this end, six single-equation regressions based on autoregressive integrated moving average or autoregressive distributed-lag techniques are estimated. The purpose of the system dynamics sub-model is to represent feedback processes and facilitate policy analysis. The effects of six policy measures are examined: emission standards, energy taxation, electric car purchase subsidies, investment in recharging stations, investment in hydrogen refuelling infrastructure and desired car occupancy. The dynamic hypothesis of the model captures feedback loops that may stimulate the market development of electric cars. The six countries are interlinked to simulate technological progress concerning the electric vehicle battery. ... mehr

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Volltext §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000095249
Veröffentlicht am 28.05.2019
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Industriebetriebslehre und Industrielle Produktion (IIP)
Publikationstyp Hochschulschrift
Jahr 2019
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator KITopen-ID: 1000095249
Verlag Karlsruhe
Umfang XXV, 304 S.
Abschlussart Dissertation
Fakultät Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften (WIWI)
Institut Institut für Industriebetriebslehre und Industrielle Produktion (IIP)
Prüfungsdatum 05.06.2018
Referent/Betreuer Prof. W. Fichtner
Schlagworte electric cars, system dynamics, market uptake, simulation, energy demand
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