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Long-term Variances of Heavy Precipitation across Central Europe using a Large Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations [in press]

Ehmele, Florian; Kautz, Lisa-Ann; Feldmann, Hendrik; Pinto, Joaquim G.

Abstract:
Widespread flooding events are among the major natural hazards in Central Europe. Such events are usually related to intensive, long-lasting precipitation. Despite some prominent floods during the last three decades (e.g. 1997, 1999, 2002, and 2013), extreme floods are rare and associated with estimated long return periods of more than 100 years. To assess the associated risks of such extreme events, reliable statistics of precipitation and discharge are required. Comprehensive observations, however, are mainly available for the last 50–60 years or less. This shortcoming can be reduced using stochastic data sets. One possibility towards this aim is to consider climate model data or extended reanalyses.

This study presents and discusses a validation of different century-long data sets, a large ensemble of decadal hindcasts, and also projections for the upcoming decade. Global reanalysis for the 20th century with a horizontal resolution of more than 100 km have been dynamically downscaled with a regional climate model (COSMO-CLM) towards a higher resolution of 25 km. The new data sets are first filtered using a dry-day adjustment. The simulations show a good agreement with observations for both statistical distributions and time series. ... mehr

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Preprint §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000098744
Veröffentlicht am 08.10.2019
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.5194/esd-2019-47
Coverbild
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2019
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2190-4995
KITopen-ID: 1000098744
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01)
Erschienen in Earth System Dynamics Discussions
Seiten 1–31
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 02.09.2019
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