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Simulating Electric Vehicle Diffusion and Charging Activities in France and Germany

Ensslen, Axel 1; Will, Christian 1; Jochem, Patrick 1
1 Institut für Industriebetriebslehre und Industrielle Produktion – Deutsch-Französisches Institut für Umweltforschung (DFIU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


Plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) are considered to reduce oil dependency, noise, and local air pollution as well as greenhouse gas emissions caused by road transportation. Today, the early market penetration phase has started and can be observed in many countries. But how could the diffusion and adoption of PEV be modeled to create consistent scenarios? With which PEV driving and charging behavior can these scenarios be associated and what load-shifting potentials can be derived? This work provides an answer to these questions by describing a hybrid modeling approach of a PEV diffusion scenario consisting of a top-down macro-econometric Bass model, answering the question as to at what point in time how many PEV will be on the market, and a bottom-up micro-econometric binary logistic PEV adoption model answering who is likely to adopt. This set of methods is applied to representative mobility data sets available for France and Germany in order to simulate driving and charging behaviors of potential French and German PEV adopters. In addition, a sampling method is presented, which reduces computational times while intending to remain representative of the population of PEV adopters considered. ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000099669
Veröffentlicht am 06.11.2019
DOI: 10.3390/wevj10040073
Zitationen: 14
Zitationen: 13
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Industriebetriebslehre und Industrielle Produktion (IIP)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2019
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2032-6653
KITopen-ID: 1000099669
Erschienen in World electric vehicle journal
Verlag MDPI
Band 10
Heft 4
Seiten Art.-Nr.: 73
Bemerkung zur Veröffentlichung This paper is an adaptation of the paper presented at the 32nd International Electric Vehicles Symposium and Exhibition (EVS32), Lyon, France 19–22 May 2019.
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 01.11.2019
Schlagwörter technology diffusion; PEV (plug-in electric vehicle); Germany; France; smart charging
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
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