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Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale

Ward, Philip J.; Blauhut, Veit; Bloemendaal, Nadia; Daniell, James E.; de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Duncan, Melanie J.; Emberson, Robert; Jenkins, Susanna F.; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Kunz, Michael; Mohr, Susanna; Muis, Sanne; Riddell, Graeme A.; Schäfer, Andreas; Stanley, Thomas; Veldkamp, Ted I. E.; Winsemius, Hessel C.

Abstract (englisch):
Since 1990, natural hazards have led to over 1.6 million fatalities globally, and economic losses are estimated at an average of around USD 260–310 billion per year. The scientific and policy communities recognise the need to reduce these risks. As a result, the last decade has seen a rapid development of global models for assessing risk from natural hazards at the global scale. In this paper, we review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale, and we specifically examine whether and how they have examined future projections of hazard, exposure, and/or vulnerability. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards, and we identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. For example, there are a number of global risk studies focusing on hydrological, climatological, and meteorological hazards that have included future projections and disaster risk reduction measures (in the case of floods), whereas fewer exist in the peer-reviewed literature for global studies related to geological hazards. On the other hand, studies of earthquake and tsunami risk are now using stochastic modelling approaches to allow for a fully probabilistic assessment of risk, which could benefit the modelling of risk from other hazards. ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000118800
Veröffentlicht am 29.04.2020
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2020
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1684-9981
KITopen-ID: 1000118800
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01)
Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Erschienen in Natural hazards and earth system sciences
Band 20
Heft 4
Seiten 1069–1096
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 22.04.2020
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
Scopus
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