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Stratospheric influence on ECMWF sub‐seasonal forecast skill for energy‐industry‐relevant surface weather in European countries

Büeler, Dominik 1; Beerli, Remo; Wernli, Heini; Grams, Christian M. 1
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


Meteorologists in the energy industry increasingly draw upon the potential for enhanced sub‐seasonal predictability of European surface weather following anomalous states of the winter stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). How the link between the SPV and the large‐scale tropospheric flow translates into forecast skill for surface weather in individual countries – a spatial scale that is particularly relevant for the energy industry – remains an open question. Here we quantify the effect of anomalously strong and weak SPV states at forecast initial time on the probabilistic extended‐range reforecast skill of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in predicting country‐ and month‐ahead‐averaged anomalies of 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed, and precipitation. After anomalous SPV states, specific surface weather anomalies emerge, which resemble the opposing phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. We find that forecast skill is, to first order, only enhanced for countries that are entirely affected by these anomalies. However, the model has a flow‐dependent bias for 2 m temperature (T2M): it predicts the warm conditions in Western, Central and Southern Europe following strong SPV states well, but is overconfident with respect to the warm anomaly in Scandinavia. ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000122253
Veröffentlicht am 08.12.2020
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3866
Zitationen: 18
Web of Science
Zitationen: 18
Zitationen: 22
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsmonat/-jahr 10.2020
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0035-9009, 1477-870X
KITopen-ID: 1000122253
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01) Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Erschienen in Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Verlag John Wiley and Sons
Band 146
Heft 733
Seiten 3675-3694
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 06.07.2020
Schlagwörter energy, European countries, polar vortex, stratosphere, sub-seasonal forecast skill, sudden stratospheric warming, surface weather
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
Web of Science
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