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Stratospheric influence on ECMWF sub‐seasonal forecast skill for energy‐industry‐relevant surface weather in European countries

Büeler, Dominik; Beerli, Remo; Wernli, Heini; Grams, Christian M.

Abstract (englisch):
Meteorologists in the energy industry increasingly draw upon the potential for enhanced sub‐seasonal predictability of European surface weather following anomalous states of the winter stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). How the link between the SPV and the large‐scale tropospheric flow translates into forecast skill for surface weather in individual countries – a spatial scale that is particularly relevant for the energy industry – remains an open question. Here we quantify the effect of anomalously strong and weak SPV states at forecast initial time on the probabilistic extendedrange reforecast skill of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in predicting country‐ and monthahead‐averaged anomalies of 2‐m temperature, 10‐m wind speed, and precipitation. After anomalous SPV states specific surface weather anomalies emerge, which resemble the opposing phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. We find that forecast skill is, to first order, only enhanced for countries that are entirely affected by these anomalies. However, the model has a flowdependent bias for 2‐m temperature (T2M): it predicts the warm conditions in Western, Central, and Southern Europe following strong SPV states well, but is overconfident with respect to the warm anomaly in Scandinavia. ... mehr

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Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3866
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2020
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0035-9009, 1477-870X
KITopen-ID: 1000122253
Erschienen in Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 06.07.2020
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