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How can social–ecological system models simulate the emergence of social–ecological crises?

Brown, Calum; Rounsevell, Mark

The idea that human impacts on natural systems might trigger large‐scale, social–ecological ‘crises’ or ‘breakdowns’ is attracting increasing scientific, societal and political attention, but the risks of such crises remain hard to assess or ameliorate.
Social–ecological systems have complex dynamics, with bifurcations, nonlinearities and tipping points all emerging from the interaction of multiple human and natural processes. Computational modelling is a key tool in understanding these processes and their effects on system resilience. However, models that operate over large geographical extents often rely on assumptions such as economic equilibrium and optimisation in social–economic systems, and mean‐field or trend‐based behaviour in ecological systems, which limit the simulation of crisis dynamics.
Alternative forms of modelling focus on simulating local‐scale processes that underpin the dynamics of social–ecological systems. Recent improvements in data resources and computational tools mean that such modelling is now technically feasible across large geographical extents.
We consider the contributions that the different types of model can make to simulating social–ecological crises. ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000127146
Veröffentlicht am 04.12.2020
DOI: 10.1002/pan3.10167
Zitationen: 2
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Institut für Geographie und Geoökologie (IFGG)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsmonat/-jahr 02.2021
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2575-8314, 2575-8314
KITopen-ID: 1000127146
HGF-Programm 12.02.01 (POF III, LK 01) Effects of land use and climate change
Erschienen in People and nature
Verlag John Wiley and Sons
Band 3
Heft 1
Seiten 88-103
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 30.11.2020
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
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