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The Performance of ECMWF sub-seasonal forecasts to predict the Rainy Season Onset Dates in Vietnam

Pham-Thanh, Ha; Phan-Van, Tan; Linden, Roderick van der; Fink, Andreas H.

Abstract:

The onset of the rainy season is an important date for the mostly rain-fed agricultural practices in Vietnam. Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) ensemble hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used to evaluate the predictability of the rainy season onset dates (RSODs) over five climatic sub-regions of Vietnam. The results show that the ECMWF model reproduces well the observed inter-annual variability of RSODs, with a high correlation ranging from 0.60 to 0.99 over all sub-regions at all lead times (up to 40 days) using five different RSOD definitions. For increasing lead times, forecasted RSODs tend to be earlier than the observed ones. Positive skill score values for almost all cases examined in all sub-regions indicate that the model outperforms the observed climatology in predicting the RSOD at sub-seasonal lead times (~28–35 days). However, the model is overall more skilful at shorter lead times. The choice of the RSOD criterion should be considered because it can significantly influence the model performance. The result of analysing the highest skill score for each sub-region at each lead time shows that criteria with higher 5-day rainfall thresholds tend to be more suitable for the forecasts at long lead times. ... mehr


Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000140556
Veröffentlicht am 12.01.2022
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-21-0144.1
Scopus
Zitationen: 2
Web of Science
Zitationen: 2
Dimensions
Zitationen: 2
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK)
Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsdatum 01.01.2022
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0882-8156, 1520-0434
KITopen-ID: 1000140556
HGF-Programm 12.11.34 (POF IV, LK 01) Improved predictions from weather to climate scales
Erschienen in Weather and forecasting
Verlag American Meteorological Society
Band 37
Heft 1
Seiten 113-124
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 29.11.2021
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Dimensions
Web of Science
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