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A Comparative Analysis of Forecasting Methods for Photovoltaic Power and Energy Generation with and without Exogenous Inputs

Starosta, Anna ORCID iD icon; Kaushik, Komal; Jhaveri, Purav; Munzke, Nina ORCID iD icon; Hiller, Marc


With drive towards a green energy sector and significant cost reduction of photovoltaic (PV) technology, global PV capacity has increased multi folds in the last decade. PV power increases the variability of power supply due to the sun’s changing position and weather volatility. Battery systems tackle these problems. For an optimized battery charging management, accurate PV energy forecasts are vital. The present work compares five 1-day-ahead PV power prediction models for a PV array of 8.64 kWp at KIT with 30° tilt and a 15° eastward orientation. The power prediction is used for intelligent battery charging management. The models are the offline persistence forecast (PF), an online forecast based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) and the machine-learning based offline Facebook prophet (FBP), support vector regression (SVR) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). According to the needs of intelligent battery charging management, the hourly PV energy forecast for the rest of the day is evaluated and compared for the different methods. The prediction methods are configurable for arbitrary inclinations and orientations. To the knowledge of the authors, FBP is compared for the first time to other models in the context of PV prediction. ... mehr

Postprint §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000141827
Veröffentlicht am 16.11.2022
DOI: 10.4229/EUPVSEC20212021-5BO.7.1
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Batterietechnikum (Batterietechnikum)
Elektrotechnisches Institut (ETI)
Publikationstyp Proceedingsbeitrag
Publikationsdatum 15.11.2021
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISBN: 3-936338-78-7
KITopen-ID: 1000141827
HGF-Programm 37.12.02 (POF IV, LK 01) Design,Operation & Digitalization of the Future Energy Grids
Erschienen in 38th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition : proceedings of the International Conference : 06 September - 10 September 2021. Ed.: J.M. Almeida Serra
Veranstaltung 38th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition (PVSEC 2021), Online, 06.09.2021 – 10.09.2021
Verlag WIP-Renewable Energies (WIP)
Seiten 938 - 945
Schlagwörter Battery Storage and Control, Evaluation, PV Array, Software, Solar Radiation, PV prediction, PV forecasting
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