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On the interaction of stochastic forcing and regime dynamics

Dorrington, Joshua 1; Palmer, Tim
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


Stochastic forcing can, sometimes, stabilise atmospheric regime dynamics, increasing their persistence. This counter-intuitive effect has been observed in geophysical models of varying complexity, and here we investigate the mechanisms underlying stochastic regime dynamics in a conceptual model. We use a six-mode truncation of a barotropic β-plane model, featuring transitions between analogues of zonal and blocked flow conditions, and identify mechanisms similar to those seen previously in work on low-dimensional random maps. Namely, we show that a geometric mechanism, here relating to monotonic instability growth, allows for asymmetric action of symmetric perturbations on regime lifetime and that random scattering can “trap” the flow in more stable regions of phase space. We comment on the implications for understanding more complex atmospheric systems.

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000157012
Veröffentlicht am 17.03.2023
DOI: 10.5194/npg-30-49-2023
Zitationen: 3
Zitationen: 4
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2023
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1607-7946
KITopen-ID: 1000157012
HGF-Programm 12.11.34 (POF IV, LK 01) Improved predictions from weather to climate scales
Erschienen in Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Verlag European Geosciences Union (EGU)
Band 30
Heft 1
Seiten 49–62
Bemerkung zur Veröffentlichung Gefördert durch den KIT-Publikationsfonds
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 07.02.2023
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