On the interaction of stochastic forcing and regime dynamics

Stochastic forcing can, sometimes, stabilise atmospheric regime dynamics, increasing their persistence. This counter-intuitive effect has been observed in geophysical models of varying complexity, and here we investigate the mechanisms underlying stochastic regime dynamics in a conceptual model. We use a six-mode truncation of a barotropic β-plane model, featuring transitions between analogues of zonal and blocked flow conditions, and identify mechanisms similar to those seen previously in work on low-dimensional random maps. Namely, we show that a geometric mechanism, here relating to monotonic instability growth, allows for asymmetric action of symmetric perturbations on regime lifetime and that random scattering can “trap” the flow in more stable regions of phase space. We comment on the implications for understanding more complex atmospheric systems.