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Added value of an atmospheric circulation pattern‐based statistical downscaling approach for daily precipitation distributions in complex terrain

Böker, Brian 1; Laux, Patrick ORCID iD icon 1; Olschewski, Patrick 1; Kunstmann, Harald 1
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Abstract:

Reliable prediction of heavy precipitation events causing floods in a world of changing climate is crucial for the development of appropriate adaption strategies. Many attempts to provide such predictions have already been conducted but there is still much potential for improvement left. This is particularly true for statistical downscaling of heavy precipitation due to changes present in the corresponding atmospheric drivers. In this study, a circulation pattern (CP) conditional downscaling to the station level is proposed which considers occurring frequency changes of CPs. Following a strict circulation-to-environment approach we use atmospheric predictors to derive CPs. Subsequently, precipitation observations are used to derive CP conditional cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of daily precipitation. Raw precipitation time series are sampled from these CDFs. Bias correction is applied to the sampled time series with quantile mapping (QM) and parametric transfer functions (PTFs) as methods being tested. The added value of this CP conditional downscaling approach is evaluated against the corresponding common non-CP conditional approach. ... mehr


Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000160030
Veröffentlicht am 30.06.2023
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1002/joc.8136
Scopus
Zitationen: 1
Web of Science
Zitationen: 1
Dimensions
Zitationen: 1
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2023
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0899-8418, 0196-1748, 1097-0088, 2374-7412
KITopen-ID: 1000160030
HGF-Programm 12.11.33 (POF IV, LK 01) Regional Climate and Hydrological Cycle
Erschienen in International Journal of Climatology
Verlag John Wiley and Sons
Band 43
Heft 11
Seiten 5130-5153
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 10.06.2023
Schlagwörter bias correction, circulation patterns, ERA5, extreme events, heavy precipitation, simulated annealing, statistical downscaling
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
Web of Science
Scopus
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