Unlocking Tomorrow’s Decarbonization Potential: A Techno-Economic Assessment of Carbon Capture Diffusion in the European Industrial Landscape

Carbon capture technologies present a promising measure to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors such as the manufacturing industry.
Despite their potential, the implementation of carbon capture projects in the industrial landscape still needs to pick up pace, posing a challenge to achieving the European climate target of zero emissions by 2050. To address this challenge, this study aims to assess the potential diffusion of carbon capture technologies, their impact on emission reduction, and the associated costs within the European manufacturing industry until 2050.

The study employs an energy demand simulation model, complemented by a discrete choice model, to analyze the diffusion of carbon capture technologies over time across various industrial production processes. The discrete choice model considers factors such as energy cost, carbon dioxide avoidance costs, and the technology readiness levels specific to different carbon capture technologies per production process, such as post-combustion, pre-combustion, and oxyfuel combustion.

The results highlight the substantial impact of technology readiness and carbon allowances on the diffusion of carbon capture technologies. ... mehrThe deployed carbon capture technologies indicate the potential to capture as much as 89.7 million tons of carbon dioxide annually within the European industry. Notably, the deployment of carbon capture is projected to peak between 2030 and 2040, followed by a subsequent decline due to increasing process route changes. Various post-combustion technologies in different sectors emerge as the most promising. At the same time, alternative methods like calcium looping and oxyfuel combustion show potential, particularly in the non-metallic minerals sector. The non-metallic minerals sector demonstrates the most significant emission reduction and economic potential for carbon capture, followed by the chemical and, iron and steel industries. Towards 2050, novel emission mitigation technologies will be deployed in the chemical as well as iron and steel industries, reducing the need for carbon capture. Conversely, in the non-metallic minerals sector, emissions from chemical transformation of materials remain high, suggesting that carbon capture could be more than a transitional technology. These results can help policy makers develop regulatory frameworks to support the increase in deployment of carbon capture technologies for sectors with the highest economic potential. Establishing clear and ambitious targets for each sector can serve as a roadmap for industrial decision-makers, providing guidance for strategic investment decisions and supporting promising technologies at an early stage.