Posterior Concentration Rates for Bayesian Penalized Splines

Despite their widespread use in practice, the asymptotic properties of Bayesian penalized splines have not been investigated so far. We close this gap and study posterior concentration rates for Bayesian penalized splines in a Gaussian nonparametric regression model. A key feature of the approach is the hyperprior on the smoothing variance, which allows for a data-driven amount of smoothing but complicates the theoretical analysis considerably as it destroys conjugacy and precludes analytic expressions for the posterior moments. To derive our theoretical results, we rely on several new concepts including a carefully defined proper version of the partially improper penalized splines prior as well as an innovative spline estimator that projects the observations onto the first basis functions of a Demmler-Reinsch basis. Our results show that posterior concentration at near optimal rate can be achieved if the order of the penalty matches the regularity of the unknown function and if the hyperprior on the smoothing variance strikes a fine balance between oversmoothing and undersmoothing, which can for instance be met by a Weibull hyperprior with shape parameter 1/2. ... mehrWe complement our theoretical results with empirical evidence demonstrating the overall competitive performance of Bayesian penalized splines in practice.