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Goal-oriented adaptivity for idealised tropical cyclones: A binary interaction scenario

Baumann, M.; Heuveline, V.; Scheck, L.; Jones, S.C.

Forecasting the motion and evolution of tropical cyclones is a challenging, computationally expensive task. Complex, interacting physical processes on a wide range of scales need to be considered. Adaptive techniques, such as local mesh refinement, are a promising way to improve the efficiency of numerical models for such multi-scale problems. We investigate the interaction of two tropical cyclones in a barotropic model assuming exact initial conditions and discuss how the impact of discretization errors on the prediction of storm tracks can be minimized using adjoint-based goal-oriented adaptivity. We propose suitable functionals for the prediction of storm tracks, interpret the associated sensitivity from a meteorological point of view and discuss its relation to sensitivity measures commonly used in meteorological applications. We present numerical results of adaptive simulations on optimized meshes and adaptive time stepping controlled by a posteriori error estimators that exploit the sensitivity information. Using goal-oriented adaptivity, the storm tracks can be determined about one order of magnitude more precisely, compared to uniform discretizations with the same number of unknowns. ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/110101711
Veröffentlicht am 24.10.2018
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2015
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0941-2948, 1610-1227
KITopen-ID: 110101711
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01)
Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Erschienen in Meteorologische Zeitschrift
Band 24
Seiten 269-292
Schlagwörter goal-oriented space-time finite element method, a posteriori error estimation, automatic grid refinement, adjoint sensitivity, sensitivity analysis, tropical cyclone dynamics
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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